Russian casualties are rising, according to the commander and to NATO officials.

“In the past few months, Russia has been losing more than 40,000 troops — killed or seriously wounded — every month. The United States in 14 years, in Vietnam, lost 56,000. Here in one month, Russia, dead or seriously wounded, 40,000. And in October, early reporting indicates this number may have climbed to over 50,000,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said this week.

Neither Ukraine nor Russia publishes their exact military losses.

The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies this summer estimated that Russian forces had suffered about 1.4 million casualties, including 400,000 to 450,000 fatalities, from the start of the full-scale invasion through June 2026. It estimated Ukrainian casualties at 525,000 to 625,000, including 125,000 to 150,000 fatalities, over the same period.

Despite rising casualties, the Russian military continues to press forward but is making few lasting gains, Apostol said. He estimated that Ukrainian forces had retaken more than 800 square kilometers from Russian forces this year as the result of two local counteroffensive operations.

Ukraine’s offensives have both a military and a political meaning as they show Kyiv is successfully resisting Russian pressure, Apostol said.